“学术午餐会”是创新发展学院面向青年教师搭建的学术交流平台,旨在促进学术交流、激发科研灵感、碰撞思想火花、拓展学术朋友圈。每次午餐会由一位主讲嘉宾分享相关研究的选题过程、领域概况、研究方法和创新性结论等。在汇报分享过程中,主讲嘉宾和与会师生可同时享用学院提供的美味午餐,并展开深度交流。
本期“学术午餐会”由创新发展学院中国经济与管理研究院尹鹏辉老师担任主讲嘉宾。
尹鹏辉,中央财经大学创新发展学院中国经济与管理研究院助理教授。在德国法兰克福大学获得经济学学博士。主要研究方向为宏观经济学、行为经济学、信息经济学等。并对预期形成、家庭消费储蓄决策等领域有广泛兴趣。已在经济学学权威期刊Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control发表独立作者论文。
分享主题:Diagnostic Expectations and Consumption Dynamics
摘要:Household survey data show that positive income shocks lead to a positive change in current consumption, but a negative change in future consumption. These empirical results contradict the predictions of the standard rational expectations-permanent income hypothesis model in which the change in current consumption only depends on unpredictable income shocks. To explain this puzzling consumption pattern, we study a behavioral permanent income hypothesis model under diagnostic expectations, and show that our model with a realistic two-component income process has the potential to generate the observed consumption dynamics. Finally, we show that although the welfare losses due to distorted beliefs are small, diagnostic expectations can have important implications for governments' stimulus fiscal policies.
【时间地点】:
2024年5月17日(星期五)12:00-13:30
学术会堂712
【活动对象】:
创新发展学院教师
【报名方式】:
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