研讨论文

Non-Bayesian Persuasion with Intransitive Indifferent Receiver

主讲人

孙思栋（中央财经大学创新发展学院助理教授）

内容简介

When a judge finds it difficult to distinguish between the plausibility of competing beliefs regarding a defendant’s guilt or innocence, the prosecutor may employ additional investigative techniques to enhance persuasion. We examine two distinct but closely related belief-updating rules to analyze a non-Bayesian persuasion scenario involving a receiver who exhibits intransitive indifference over probability measures. Under the naive rule, a single information structure suffices for optimal persuasion, and the receiver's belief ambiguity can affect the sender’s utility in positive, negative, or neutral ways. In contrast, when the receiver follows the sophisticated rule, signals can serve to establish a reference point, breaking ties between otherwise indistinguishable beliefs. As a result, the sender may strategically leverage the receiver's belief ambiguity by presenting multiple information structures, thereby making the sender’s preferred actions more persuasive to the receiver.

点评老师

张志祥、尹训东

时间

10月28日 (14：30-16：00）

地点

学术会堂712

活动对象

创新发展学院学生

人数规模

30人

主办单位

创新发展学院

撰稿：孙思栋

审稿：尹训东

编辑：沈嘉怡

审核：王颖