本期主题

Tariffs and Monetary Policy

分享论文

Tariffs and Monetary Policy

（Working Paper，Tommaso Monacelli，2025）

分享人

付璐（金融学院，硕士研究生）

时间

2025年12月7日（周日）下午14:00-18:00

地点

学术会堂712

主持人

王忏（金融学院）

赵军柱（创新发展学院中国经济与管理研究院）

论文摘要

We study the macroeconomic effects of import and export tariffs in a baseline New Keynesian open economy model. We show that those effects crucially depend on the endogenous reaction of monetary policy.Import tariffs can be either contractionary or expansionary, depending on whether the monetary authority targets CPI inflation or rather a narrow ndex of domestic goods PPI inflation. Under flexible domestic prices,import tariffs are expansionary only under a sufficiently high elasticity of substitution between imported and domestic goods. An exchange rate peg maximizes the expansionary effects of import tariffs. Conversely, export tariffs are always contractionary, as they directly affect export demand.The strength of the negative output effect, however, also depends on the monetary policy regime. In this case, accommodating (either directly or indirectly) the ensuing depreciation of the nominal exchange rate is critical to minimize the contractionary output effect of export tariffs. In response to both tariff shocks, optimal monetary policy manipulates the exchange rate to achieve a more expansionary stance than the one that implements the flexible (domestic) price allocation.

活动对象

创新发展学院、金融学院学生

人数规模

30人

主办单位

创新发展学院中国经济与管理研究院、金融学院联合主办

撰稿：付璐

审稿：赵军柱

编辑：沈嘉怡

审核：王颖