讲座题目：
The Causal Impact of the 2018 Tariff Shock on US Firms: Does Artificial Intelligence Mitigate Tariff-Induced Losses?
主讲嘉宾：Sushanta Mallick
时间：2026年7月21日，星期二，下午15:00-16:30
地点：中央财经大学（学院南路校区）学术会堂712
主办方：创新发展学院中国金融发展研究院
嘉宾介绍
Sushanta Mallick 现任伦敦玛丽女王大学国际金融教授，兼任期刊Oxford Economic Papers执行主编、Journal of Economic Surveys联合主编及Economic Analysis and Policy联合主编。Mallick 教授获英国华威大学经济学博士学位，在国际顶级与权威学术期刊发表经同行评审论文逾100篇，研究领域涵盖国际经济学、银行与金融、创新与发展等。根据 IDEAS/RePEc 排名，他位列全球经济学家前5%，在谷歌学术的累计引用超过8,800次，h 指数为 54。其研究成果发表于Journal of Econometrics, Journal of Development Economics, Journal of Corporate Finance, European Journal of Operational Research, Research Policy, British Journal of Management, Economic Theory, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Journal of Banking & Finance等知名期刊。
讲座摘要
This paper examines the impact of the 2018 US tariff escalation on firm profitability and investigates whether artificial intelligence (AI) adoption enhanced firms' resilience to tariff-induced shocks. Using a difference-in-differences framework, we compare firms importing intermediate inputs with those importing final consumption goods to identify the causal effect of tariffs on profitability. We construct a firm-level measure of AI adoption from textual analysis of SEC 10-K filings, capturing firms' investments in and use of AI technologies. We then estimate a triple-difference model to assess whether AI-adopting firms were better able to withstand the adverse effects of tariffs. The results show that the 2018 tariff shock significantly reduced the profitability of intermediate-input importers relative to firms importing final goods. However, AI adoption partially offset these losses, with AI-intensive firms experiencing a significantly smaller decline in profitability. These findings suggest that AI can strengthen firms' resilience to trade policy shocks, although it cannot fully eliminate their adverse effects.
来源：赵阳
审稿：郭枫、陈翀
编辑：柴新凯
审核：赵扶扬、赵阳
