简介

理悦CEMA•知与行系列研讨会2026年第十一讲将于4月13日（周一）中午11：30-13：00在学术会堂712会议室举行，由Olga Goldfayn-Frank主讲主题为“Beyond the Short Run: Monetary Policy and Innovation Investment”（超越短期：货币政策与创新投资）的讲座。欢迎广大师生（尤其是对科研有兴趣和追求的本科生、硕士生和博士生）参加。讲座对所有人免费开放，不需要提前预约。

讲座主题

Beyond the Short Run: Monetary Policy and Innovation Investment 

超越短期：货币政策与创新投资

主讲人

Olga Goldfayn-Frank 

Olga Goldfayn-Frank is a senior economist in the Research Center of the German Bundesbank and a CEPR Research Affiliate. Her research focuses on financial decisions and expectations of households, as well as behavior of firms--and the implications for macroeconomy. Her research has appeared or is forthcoming in leading economics journals, including the Review of Economic Studies, the Journal of Monetary Economics, and AEA Papers and Proceedings.

主讲内容

Using a novel approach implemented in a unique survey of German firms, we study how monetary policy affects firms’ innovation investment. We find that the ECB’s policy rate hike of cumulative 450 basis points at the end of 2023 led 33% of firms to cut innovation spending by 67% on average, with effects persisting through 2024-2025. We show further that while rate hikes discourage innovation investment, cuts stimulate firms’ innovation pending. We demonstrate that forward guidance communication can provide significant additional stimulus, suggesting longer-term, supply-side effects of forward guidance. Monetary policy transmission operates through both financial and demand channels, with stronger effects for smaller firms, those with a higher share of bank loans, and those with weak expectations about demand. Our findings indicate persistent effects of monetary policy on longer-term aggregate supply, challenge long-run monetary neutrality and suggest policy-endogeneity of the natural rate of interest R*.

时间

4月13日11:30-13:00

地点

学术会堂712

活动对象

创新发展学院师生

主办单位

创新发展学院 中国经济与管理研究院

撰稿：Olga Goldfayn-Frank 

审稿：何其春  

编辑：沈嘉怡 

审核：赵扶扬