简介
观微知著系列讲座第二讲将于2026年5月29日（周五）下午13:30-15:00在学术会堂南楼712会议室举行，由都柏林大学学院（University College Dublin, UCD）长聘助理教授Fabrice Kämpfen报告以下内容：
Family Health Spillovers: A Multidimensional Regression Discontinuity Design
《家庭健康溢出效应：一个多维断点回归设计》
欢迎广大师生（尤其是对科研有兴趣和追求的本科生、硕士生和博士生）参加。讲座对所有人免费开放，不需要提前预约。
讲座主题
Family Health Spillovers: A Multidimensional Regression Discontinuity Design
主讲人介绍
Fabrice Kämpfen is a tenured Assistant Professor at the School of Economics at University College Dublin (UCD). He is broadly trained health economist with research interests focused on innovative topics in health economics, population health and aging. An important innovation of his research has been the expansion of aging research beyond well-studied high-income countries, with a novel focus on low-and middle-income contexts. His findings have been published in various top-field academic journals and advertised in major news outlets, including the New York Times and the Hindu.
摘要
Using a semi-parametric, multidimensional regression discontinuity design, we find that warning Chinese adults about high blood pressure (BP) when it crosses thresholds has no significant effect on their BP about 2.5 years later, but there are large and asymmetric spillovers consistent with joint health production in a collective household with unequal bargaining power. We estimate warning a man reduces his wife’s BP by 7.5% and her probability of having high BP by 24% points, while there is no evidence of female-to-male spillovers. There are significant intergenerational (primarily father-to-son) spillovers. Apparently, even screening for non-communicable disease risks can generate positive externalities.
本文采用半参数、多维断点回归设计，研究中国成年人在血压（BP）超过阈值后收到高血压风险预警所产生的影响。研究发现，该预警在约 2.5 年后并未显著降低个体自身血压，但却产生了明显且不对称的家庭健康溢出效应，这与家庭集体决策及不平等议价权下的联合健康生产机制一致。具体而言，对男性发出预警会使其妻子的血压下降 7.5%，并使其患高血压的概率下降 24 个百分点；而女性对男性则不存在显著溢出效应。同时，研究还发现显著的代际溢出效应，主要表现为父亲对儿子的影响。研究表明，即使是针对非传染性疾病风险的筛查，也可能产生积极的外部性。
时间
2026年5月29日（周五）下午13:30-15:00
地点
中央财经大学（学院南路校区）学术会堂南楼712
主办方
创新发展学院人力资本与劳动经济研究中心
撰稿：Fabrice Kämpfen
审稿：张亿
编辑：沈嘉怡
审核：赵扶扬
