研讨论文

Demographics and real interest rates: Inspecting the mechanism (European Economic Review. Carvalho, Ferrero and Nechio. 2016)

主讲人

朱景明（中经管2022级硕士生）

上期回顾

Advances in artificiWe calibrate a tractable life-cycle model to capture salient features of the demographic transition in developed economies, and find that its overall effect is a reduction of the equilibrium interest rate by at least one and a half percentage points between 1990 and 2014. Demographic trends have important implications for the conduct of monetary policy, especially in light of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates.al intelligence and robotics may be leading to a new industrial revolution. This paper presents a model with the minimum necessary features to analyze the implications for inequality and output. Two assumptions are key: “robot” capital is distinct from traditional capital in its degree of substitutability with human labor; and only capitalists and skilled workers save. We analyze a range of variants that reflect widely different views of how automation may transform the labor market. Our main results are surprisingly robust: automation is good for growth and bad for equality; in the benchmark model real wages fall in the short run and eventually rise, but “eventually” can easily take generations.

本期预告

So far, we have assumed that individuals self-finance their consumption after retirement through savings during their employment spell. While this approach may be a good approximation for some countries (e.g. the United States), in several others (especially in continental Europe) public pension systems provide the bulk of the pension funds. In this section, we consider a simple modification of the model that allows us to study whether this more realistic arrangement changes our results.

具体时间

1月19日14:00-17:00

地点

学术会堂712

点评老师

王忏 明洋

活动对象

创新发展学院、金融学院学生

人数规模

30人

主办单位

创新发展学院中国经济与管理研究院、金融学院联合主办