研讨论文

Demographics and real interest rates: Inspecting the mechanism (European Economic Review. Carvalho, Ferrero and Nechio. 2016)

主讲人

朱景明（中经管2022级硕士生）

上期回顾

Last time, we considered a model with social security. In principle, we may have expected that if the government provides transfers after retirement, individuals would have less enthusiasm to save during employment, and this effect would have muted the impact of the demographic transition on the real interest rate. This channel is at work during the early stages of the simulation, but not quantitatively significant. As the demographic transition continues, maintaining a constant level of transfers to a larger pool of retirees requires that output increases at the same pace. The only way the economy can achieve this higher growth rate is through savings and investment. Therefore, the real interest rate must fall. A higher population growth implies a higher saving rate, because future transfers will be even higher, in spite of the positive contribution to output that a larger number of workers provide.

本期预告

We will analyze the relationship between demographic data and real interest rates. We will first discuss the calibration of the model, and then analyze the results of two main quantitative experiments, including a fall in the population growth rate and an increase in survival probability.  

时间

1月25日12:30-15:00

地点

学术会堂712

点评老师

王忏 明洋

活动对象

创新发展学院、金融学院学生

人数规模

30人

主办单位

创新发展学院中国经济与管理研究院、金融学院