分享论文

Tariffs and Monetary Policy

（Working Paper，Tommaso Monacelli，2025）

分享人

付璐（金融学院，硕士研究生）

时间

2026年1月4日（周日），下午14:00-18:00

地点

学术会堂712

主持人

王忏（金融学院），

赵军柱（创新发展学院中国经济与管理研究院）

论文摘要

We study the macroeconomic effects of import and export tariffs in a baseline open-economy New Keynesian model. The impact of tariffs depends critically on the endogenous response of monetary policy. Import tariffs can be either contractionary or expansionary, depending on whether the central bank targets CPI inflation or a narrower measure of domestic goods (PPI) inflation. Under flexible prices, import tariffs are expansionary only when the elasticity of substitution between domestic and imported goods is sufficiently high, while an exchange rate peg amplifies this expansionary effect. Export tariffs, by contrast, are always contractionary, as they directly depress external demand, though the magnitude of the output loss depends on the monetary policy regime. Tariff shocks are inefficient, namely they generate a time-varying wedge between the efficient and the flexible-price allocations. This happens either exogenously or endogenously, depending on whether tariff shocks affect the efficient allocation. Optimal monetary policy exploits exchange rate movements to achieve a more expansionary stance than the one replicating the flexible-price allocation. In contrast, strict CPI-inflation targeting introduces a contractionary bias, producing large deviations from constrained efficiency.

活动对象

创新发展学院、金融学院学生

人数规模

30人

主办单位

创新发展学院中国经济与管理研究院、金融学院联合主办

撰稿：付璐

审稿：赵军柱

编辑：沈嘉怡

审核：林艺茹